OPEC's Daukoru `Very Concerned' About Oil Price Drop (Update3)

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Note from admin: Powerful elements in the financial community -- in collusion with certain U.S. government officials -- are tampering with the price of oil prior to the November 2006 elections.

Excerpt: Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, pumped 9.2 million barrels a day in August, al-Naimi said, surpassing its quota of about 9.1 million a day. Saudi production peaked at 9.78 million barrels a day in October 2004.

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Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC President Edmund Daukoru said he's ``very concerned'' about the drop in oil prices, putting him at odds with ministers from member countries including Saudi Arabia and Algeria. ``We need to review it in depth,'' Daukoru, who is also the Nigerian oil minister, told reporters today as he arrived in Vienna for a meeting next week of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. ``We don't know how much further it can go. I am very concerned.'' Ministers from OPEC's 11 member states, which supply 40 percent of the world's oil, meet Sept. 11 to determine policy for the next few months and to discuss prices that have dropped 16 percent from a July 14 record of $78.40 a barrel in New York. OPEC hasn't changed official production quotas since July 2005. Daukoru's comments were in contrast to those by ministers from Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Libya and the United Arab Emirates, who said earlier today that OPEC may leave quotas unchanged. ``We are very happy with the situation as it is,'' Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said as he arrived in Vienna. ``Stocks are pretty good, the economy is doing well and prices are high,'' said Chakib Khelil, Algeria's oil minister. ``I imagine we are not going to do anything, and keep the ceiling.'' Oil, which closed Sept. 8 in New York at $66.25 a barrel, may fall further if the world economy slows, said Jason Schenker, energy economist at Wachovia Corp. Recession and Oil ``If you have a recession, the price of oil will tank,'' Schenker said in Vienna. ``Right now we're pricing in a 30 percent chance of a recession next year. If there's a 30 percent chance of a recession, there's a 30 percent chance of sub-$40 oil.'' Oil prices have fallen as concerns have eased about disruptions sparked by a dispute with Iran over its nuclear research program. Countries including the U.S. and Britain have said the country, the world's fourth-biggest oil producer, may want to build nuclear weapons. The Islamic republic says it's enriching uranium for peaceful purposes. The price has also declined as fighting in Lebanon between Israeli and Hezbollah forces ended, and as a benign Atlantic hurricane season has damped concern that oil and natural gas from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico will be disrupted. ``We have been producing above quota systematically,'' Daukoru said. ``Each time we wanted to review, but because of the geopolitical situation we put off the review. So we are more or less on autopilot and I think we are going to have to take over the manual control.'' Libya, U.A.E. Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya's National Oil Corp. and the country's OPEC representative, said he doesn't share Daukoru's concern about the oil price decline. ``I don't think at this juncture we are even at the position where we have to do much to defend because they are not falling down that much,'' Ghanem said in Vienna. ``We don't need to cut production or to increase production.'' The U.A.E.'s Mohamed al-Hamli, who will assume the OPEC presidency in 2007, said ``we would like to see the price below $70'' a barrel. ``The prices are moderating, which makes us very happy,'' he said in Vienna. OPEC will probably maintain production, he said. Output for the group's 10 members with limits was 27.9 million barrels a day in August, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Members last surpassed their 28 million target in February. Including Iraq, which isn't subject to a quota, production last month was 29.9 million barrels a day. Saudi Production Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, pumped 9.2 million barrels a day in August, al-Naimi said, surpassing its quota of about 9.1 million a day. Saudi production peaked at 9.78 million barrels a day in October 2004. ``OPEC and Saudi Arabia show care and interest for world economic growth and particularly the economic growth of developing countries,'' al-Naimi said. Daukoru said in August that OPEC won't cut production quotas this year and will keep enough oil flowing to meet demand. ``We are doing more than our quotas,'' he told reporters in Brazil on Aug. 17. ``The market needs to see that there's some excess. I don't see a circumstance where we would need to cut back production and therefore return to quota allocation.'' In Daukoru's country, oil companies have suffered from attacks on infrastructure, kidnappings of employees and theft. Militant action and other damage have cut output in Nigeria this year by as much as 715,000 barrels a day. Nigerian output in August was unchanged at 2.2 million barrels a day, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.